College Hockey Exile: Week One

Overview

This will attempt to be a (boring/mediocre) weekly chronicle of a college hockey fan's attempt to follow the season from what is essentially a college hockey "no man's land," Cleveland, Ohio. This will mostly consist of me watching high numbered extended cable channels on weekends, listening to the radio with a bad wireless connection, and complaining.

Based on my present location, this should include visits to Quicken Loans Arena to watch former BU players play (Kenny Roche) and coach (Joe Sacco) for the new local AHL club, the Lake Erie Monsters. I'll also probably drop in on division III club team Case Western Reserve University at the Cleveland Heights Community Center at least once.

The real highlight will be an exodus to Ann Arbor for the BU-Wolverines series in 2 weeks.

Impending Disaster

Speaking of Michigan, when I watched BC's attempted comeback in the first round of the IceBreaker on FSN-Atlantic last Friday, I had mixed feelings about Michigan's victory on a cheap own goal in sudden death OT. I like seeing BC get beat, but Michigan would have been a nice non-conference scalp for Hockey East on the whole. In the scheme of things, one non-conference loss rarely has a large effect on the league as a whole... of course, I didn't know how the rest of the league was faring on Friday night.

On Friday, Hockey East went 1-7-0 in non-conference play. This included losses to teams from ECAC Hockey (Clarkson over UMass, St. Lawrence over Providence), the CCHA (Miami over Vermont, BC's aforementioned loss to Michigan), the WCHA (Denver over Maine), the soon-to-be disbanded CHA (Robert Morris over BU), and Canadian Interuniversity Sport's Atlantic University Sport (New Brunswick over UNH, thankfully an exhibition).

What a colossal disaster.

The league's lone win came via Merrimack (last place in the HEA Coach's Pre-Season Poll) who beat Niagara.

At this point, Hockey East's interconference record is 3-9-1, better only than Atlantic Hockey's 0-10-1. All other conferences are over .500.

I'm not saying HEA is the second worst conference (down from their usual position of second best), some of those results were wacky, like BC beating themselves or BU losing despite outshooting RMU 35-15 and still losing to three unanswered late goals, but the panic button must be hit. Unlike football and basketball, hockey's postseason berths are decided by a wholly objective process. League reputation is worthless if you don't win this season. 27 (plus playoffs) of each HEA teams' games are inconference, leaving only room for 7 non-conference games (plus extra for exempted tournaments). That means there's not alot of time to get the out of conference wins necessary to garner a respectable RPI or PWR. At this pace, HEA could be looking at getting only 2 teams to the dance since the dawn of the 16 team field.

What to Watch

Flipping between a pair of games Friday at 8PM:
- North Dakota @ BC on CSTV
- "BU Killer" Robert Morris @ Wisconsin on FCS-Atlantic

Sunday at 4PM:
- BC @ Vermont on ESPNU

Who?

At the top of tonight's Red Sox-Indians game on SportsTime Ohio, the BoSox disabled list that flashed on the screen read as:

Mike Timlin
Jon Lester
Matt Clement

Really? Matt Clement? I didn't realize he was still even in the league, nevermind on the Red Sox DL. You know the prognosis is awful, since you never hear him as part of the Tavarez/Lester/Snyder/Whoever debate as for who will be the 5th starter in the second-half of the season.

Azumah's Heir

With their 5th round selection in the NFL draft today, the Chicago Bears selected cornerback Corey Graham, from former-Bear Jerry Azumah's own University of New Hampshire.

Graham's a great player, and had he kept his tibia in one piece last season, the UNH Wildcats would have been the Football Championship Subdivision national champions.

As a I-AA/FCS player, Graham has really missed out on some of the attention his career really deserved... unlike every long snapper and scout squad right guard at a major school, Graham doesn't even have a Wikipedia page yet... a tidbit I only mention, because a search on that site for "Corey Graham" right now suggests the page for "Corey Haim" as the #1 page.

Thank You, Michigan State!

For reasons that should be fairly obvious, considering my last posting.

Thank You, Boston College!

Sing it with me Hockey East (and CCHA, ECAC Hockey, Atlantic Hockey, and CHA) fans!

Ding, dong the WCHA is dead!
The WCHA is dead!
The WCHA is dead!
Ding, dong the Western Collegiate Hockey Association is dead!

Two nights ago, the BC Eagles bounced the North Dakota Fighting Sioux from the Frozen Four, meaning that for the first time in over half a decade, the WCHA will not claim the champions of the college hockey world.

Never thought I'd say this, but thank God for Boston College.

Hockey Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

“Can you hear the people cheering in Oxford, Ohio and Amherst, Massachusetts?!” – CSTV color commentator at the ECACHL Championship game, after Clarkson took a late lead against Quinnipiac.

Regular season? Over. Conference playoffs? Over. Tomorrow, at 2:30 on ESPN2, the 16 team field will become official, and the madness will really begin…

Of course, we already have a good idea how the show will play out…

Before we unveil this year’s final bracket projection, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended tonight, whether through their own failings on the ice in a game, or through other games played not falling their way. After the semifinals last night, 22 teams were in the running, although some teams were already resting their hopes on a series of miracles today. Hope finally died tonight for the last 6 teams: Army, Dartmouth, Denver, Michigan Tech, Quinnipiac, and Wisconsin.

The first step in making our final bracket, is congratulating the conference champions, who all receive autobids to the tournament:

AHA - Air Force
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson
HEA - Boston College
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league champions):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College *
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Maine
11 - Massachusetts
11 - St. Lawrence
14 - Miami of Ohio
NR - Air Force *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *

So we have 2 2-way ties and a 3-way tie:

Michigan v. Michigan State

Michigan boasts a better RPI and a better record against common opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Head-to-head, Michigan leads 3-2 after their CCHA seminfinal win last night. The final result is a 5-3 comparison win for Michigan, nabbing them the final #2 seed in the tournament.

Maine v. Massachusetts v. St. Lawrence

UMass wins their comparison against SLU, despite a lower RPI, due to their better record against TUCs and common opponents.

Against UMO, UMass has the edge in their record against common opponents. UMO, however, wins the RPI and TUC record battles. Where this comparison really turns in UMass’s favor, is UMass’s 4 game winning streak against Maine in the final weekend of the regular season and the conference quarterfinals, en route to a 4-1 record against Maine on the season. This gives the Minutemen the comparison 5-3, and results in UMass obtaining the overall #11 seed.

SLU wins their comparison against Maine 2-1, by having a better RPI and record against TUCs, while the Black Bears had a superior record against common opponents. This gives SLU the tournaments final #3 seed.

Air Force v. Alabama-Huntsville

Since both teams finished outside of the top-25 in RPI, niether is a part of the PWR comparisons. As a result, AFA grabs the #15 spot due to their higher RPI alone.

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Air Force
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester as the lone host to make the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - Michigan State
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - North Dakota
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This results in 2 intraconference matchups: Michigan-Michigan State and UNH-Maine. I prefer to keep the top half of the bracket intact, so the least disruptive ways to solve out problems is to swap MSU with North Dakota and Maine with Miami.

Our final brackets are therefore:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - North Dakota
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St. Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.

Hockey Bracketology: Conference Finals Edition

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended due to the results of last night’s semifinal action (and the WCHA’s play-in game). At last count, 25 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced by the bouncing of: Connecticut, Lake Superior State, Sacred Heart, and… well, I really don’t know who else to write off. Even though there’s only 8 games left to be played (5 title games and 3 consolation games), the results could result in wildly different fields. It looks like some idle teams on the bubble will be pretty safe (Maine, Miami of Ohio) and some are longshots (Denver, Michigan Tech). At least one team took a surprising dive after a loss last night, but could rebound and wind up with a nice seed anyways or could wind up unexpectedly out of the tournament (Massachusetts). Others have to play their consolation games like they’re in the national championship game, and hope several other results go their way (Dartmouth, Wisconsin).

Of course, most of this is speculation by a guy who only took the time to run a handful of scenarios, out of hundreds, on USCHO.com’s “Pairwise Predictor,” but you get the idea.

As for those still looking for autobids in the championship games tonight, here’s the top team left in each tournament (and our projected champion for this bracketology), with their opponent in parentheses:

AHA - Army (Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson (Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College)
WCHA - Minnesota (North Dakota)

In addition, the CCHA (Michigan State v. Lake Superior State), ECACHL (St. Lawrence v. Dartmouth), and WCHA (St. Cloud State v. Wisconsin), all play consolation games tonight.

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
3 - New Hampshire *
5 - Boston College
5 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
7 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - Massachusetts
12 - Miami of Ohio
12 - St. Lawrence
15 – Denver
16 – Michigan Tech
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *
NR – Army *

That’s right… 5 2-way ties and a 3-way tie. The 4 higher 2-way ties will be broken based on who wins the PWR comparison between the schools (which, interestingly enough, gives the higher seeding to the school with the lower RPI in the case of the ties at 3, 5, and 7). The 3-way tie will be broken by RPI, since amongst themselves, all 3 schools are 1-1 in PWR comparisons. The final tie, between non-TUC autobid winners UAH and Army will be determined by straight RPI.

So the seeding is:
1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Miami of Ohio
14 - Massachusetts
15 – Army
16 - Alabama-Huntsville
So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Army

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 – St. Cloud State
3 - Maine
4 - Massachusetts

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13

1 - New Hampshire
2 – Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

This results in no intraconference first round matchups and good attendance, except for Denver. Since there’s nothing obvious that would improve attendence there, we’re going to stick with what we have.

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.

Hockey Bracketology: Deep South Edition

The title is in honor of Alabama-Huntsville, who went from worst to first over the weekend, pulling off three straight come-from-behind victories over higher seeds in order to claim the CHA's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. 5 more automatic tickets will be punched this weekend, as the other conferences send their "Final 4" (or "Final 5" in the WCHA's case) to neutral sites in order to determine their champions.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended in conference tourney play over the weekend. At last count, 47 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced to 25 by the bouncing of: Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, American International, Bemidji State, Bentley, Colgate, Colorado College, Cornell, Harvard, Holy Cross, Mercyhurst, Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Niagara, Northeastern, Northern Michigan, Princeton, Providence, Robert Morris, Vermont, and Wayne State.

3 other teams saw their conference tournaments end early, and must now nervously await next weekend's results. All three are in danger, to varying degrees: Denver needs a miracle, Miami of Ohio needs to cheer for the favorites, and Maine just has to hope the higher seeds don't have total meltdowns in multiple tournaments.

As for the 22 that control their own destiny, here's the top remaining seeds (and thus the autobid winners for the purposes of this bracketology) as well as the remaining teams in their respective tournaments in parentheses, in order of seeding:

AHA - Sacred Heart (Army, Connecticut, Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan, Michigan State, Lake Superior State)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - St. Lawrence (Clarkson, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts)
WCHA - Minnesota (Saint Cloud State, North Dakota, Michigan Tech, Wisconsin)

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire *
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
8 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence *
14 - Miami of Ohio
23 - Sacred Heart *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *


So we have 2 ties to break:

Michigan vs. Michigan State vs. North Dakota

North Dakota wins comparisons with both Michigan and Michigan State largely on the strength of their vastly superior RPI. Against Michigan, NoDak has the better record against TUCs, but and inferior record against Common Opponents. Against Michigan State, the opposites are true. In both cases, the Sioux wins the comparison 2-1, and earns the overall #8 seed and final regional #2 seed.

In their comparison, Michigan beats Michigan State in RPI and record versus Common Opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Their head-to-head meetings ended in with a pair of wins by each, resulting in the Wolverines winning the comparison 4-3.

Maine vs. Saint Lawrence

SLU boasts a better record against TUCs, and UMO has a better record against Common Opponents, so this comparison goes to SLU by virtue of their slim three-thousandths of a point edge in RPI (.5396 to .5369).

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Sacred Heart
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This gives us 3 intraconference matchups to split up: BC-UMass in Denver, and both UNH-Maine and Clarkson-SLU in Manchester. I think the integrity of the top half of the bracket (the 1 and 2 seeds) is important to the committee and all swaps will occur in the bottom half of the seedings unless it becomes unwieldy. In this case, I'd advocate the swap of both the 3 and 4 seed in the Denver and Manchester brackets. This gives us a final bracket of:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 12
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 14 / 5 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and East-West.