Hockey Bracketology: Deep South Edition

The title is in honor of Alabama-Huntsville, who went from worst to first over the weekend, pulling off three straight come-from-behind victories over higher seeds in order to claim the CHA's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. 5 more automatic tickets will be punched this weekend, as the other conferences send their "Final 4" (or "Final 5" in the WCHA's case) to neutral sites in order to determine their champions.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended in conference tourney play over the weekend. At last count, 47 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced to 25 by the bouncing of: Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, American International, Bemidji State, Bentley, Colgate, Colorado College, Cornell, Harvard, Holy Cross, Mercyhurst, Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Niagara, Northeastern, Northern Michigan, Princeton, Providence, Robert Morris, Vermont, and Wayne State.

3 other teams saw their conference tournaments end early, and must now nervously await next weekend's results. All three are in danger, to varying degrees: Denver needs a miracle, Miami of Ohio needs to cheer for the favorites, and Maine just has to hope the higher seeds don't have total meltdowns in multiple tournaments.

As for the 22 that control their own destiny, here's the top remaining seeds (and thus the autobid winners for the purposes of this bracketology) as well as the remaining teams in their respective tournaments in parentheses, in order of seeding:

AHA - Sacred Heart (Army, Connecticut, Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan, Michigan State, Lake Superior State)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - St. Lawrence (Clarkson, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts)
WCHA - Minnesota (Saint Cloud State, North Dakota, Michigan Tech, Wisconsin)

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire *
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
8 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence *
14 - Miami of Ohio
23 - Sacred Heart *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *


So we have 2 ties to break:

Michigan vs. Michigan State vs. North Dakota

North Dakota wins comparisons with both Michigan and Michigan State largely on the strength of their vastly superior RPI. Against Michigan, NoDak has the better record against TUCs, but and inferior record against Common Opponents. Against Michigan State, the opposites are true. In both cases, the Sioux wins the comparison 2-1, and earns the overall #8 seed and final regional #2 seed.

In their comparison, Michigan beats Michigan State in RPI and record versus Common Opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Their head-to-head meetings ended in with a pair of wins by each, resulting in the Wolverines winning the comparison 4-3.

Maine vs. Saint Lawrence

SLU boasts a better record against TUCs, and UMO has a better record against Common Opponents, so this comparison goes to SLU by virtue of their slim three-thousandths of a point edge in RPI (.5396 to .5369).

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Sacred Heart
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This gives us 3 intraconference matchups to split up: BC-UMass in Denver, and both UNH-Maine and Clarkson-SLU in Manchester. I think the integrity of the top half of the bracket (the 1 and 2 seeds) is important to the committee and all swaps will occur in the bottom half of the seedings unless it becomes unwieldy. In this case, I'd advocate the swap of both the 3 and 4 seed in the Denver and Manchester brackets. This gives us a final bracket of:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 12
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 14 / 5 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and East-West.