Hockey Bracketology : Conference Quarterfinals Edition

Well, now the regular season is over no matter what league you play in, and every league has quarterfinal action to look forward to this weekend (or the "first round" in the WCHA with it's awkward "Final Five" format, which confers byes upon the top 3 teams that get through the first weekend, making this round more-or-less a quarterfinal affair). The CHA, which plays its entire playoff slate in Des Moines this weekend, has quarterfinal, semifinal, and championship action to look forward to.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, lets take a moment to wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons joined RIT's and Merrimack's on the scrapheap this past weekend: Bowling Green, Brown, Canisius, Ferris State, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ohio State, Rensselaer, Union, Western Michigan, and Yale. This leaves 47 schools vying to make the field of 16.

Anyways, the league regular season champions are:
Anyways, the current league leaders are:

AHA - Sacred Heart (in place of RIT)
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Niagara
ECACHL - St. Lawrence
HEA - New Hampshire
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - New Hampshire *
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - North Dakota
7 - Boston University
7 - Miami of Ohio
9 - Boston College
9 - Michigan
11 - Maine
12 - Denver
13 - Massachusetts
13 - Michigan State
13 - St. Lawrence *
NR - Niagara *
NR - Sacred Heart *

There are 2 easy ties to break in the middle of the pack. Miami gets the 7 spot over Boston University. Despite BU's better RPI, Miami has the better record against TUCs and a better record against common opponents (the latter mostly due to BU's late collapse against St. Lawrence over winter break, and Miami's win against the Saints over Thanksgiving). Boston College gets the nine spot due to beating Michigan in all 3 statistical comparisons.

The tough one is the 13 spot, with a 3 way tie between SLU, UMass, and Michigan State. With SLu guaranteed a bid as the ECACHL leader, either UMass or MSU is out. Based on the Pairwise matchups, SLU beats MSU, who beats UMass, who beats SLU. The 3 way tie should then be broken based on RPI, which puts SLU at 13, MSU at 14, and UMass home in Amherst.

Niagara gets the 15 seed over Sacred Heart due to holding a higher RPI, with both teams just missing becoming TUCs at 26th and 27th in the RPI.

So here's the field:


1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - New Hampshire
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - North Dakota
7 - Miami of Ohio
8 - Boston University
9 - Boston College
10 - Michigan
11 - Maine
12 - Denver
13 - St. Lawrence
14 - Michigan State
15 - Niagara
16 - Sacred Heart

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and DU to Denver. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - Boston University
3 - Boston College
4 - Sacred Heart

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Miami
3 - Michigan
4 - Niagara

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Maine
4 - Michigan State

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - St. Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Denver
4 - St. Lawrence

This gives us 2 intraconference matchups: BU-BC and Miami-Michigan. We'll settle them both by swapping 3 seeds BC and Michigan, which has the added bonus of sending Michigan to Grand Rapids without disrupting the integrity of the second round matchups.

The final bracket is:


MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10
1 - Minnesota
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan
4 - Sacred Heart

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Miami
3 - Boston College
4 - Niagara

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Maine
4 - Michigan State

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12
1 - St. Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Denver
4 - St. Lawrence

In St. Louis, Midwest v. West and East v. Northeast would play in the Frozen Four.