Hockey Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

“Can you hear the people cheering in Oxford, Ohio and Amherst, Massachusetts?!” – CSTV color commentator at the ECACHL Championship game, after Clarkson took a late lead against Quinnipiac.

Regular season? Over. Conference playoffs? Over. Tomorrow, at 2:30 on ESPN2, the 16 team field will become official, and the madness will really begin…

Of course, we already have a good idea how the show will play out…

Before we unveil this year’s final bracket projection, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended tonight, whether through their own failings on the ice in a game, or through other games played not falling their way. After the semifinals last night, 22 teams were in the running, although some teams were already resting their hopes on a series of miracles today. Hope finally died tonight for the last 6 teams: Army, Dartmouth, Denver, Michigan Tech, Quinnipiac, and Wisconsin.

The first step in making our final bracket, is congratulating the conference champions, who all receive autobids to the tournament:

AHA - Air Force
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson
HEA - Boston College
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league champions):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College *
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Maine
11 - Massachusetts
11 - St. Lawrence
14 - Miami of Ohio
NR - Air Force *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *

So we have 2 2-way ties and a 3-way tie:

Michigan v. Michigan State

Michigan boasts a better RPI and a better record against common opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Head-to-head, Michigan leads 3-2 after their CCHA seminfinal win last night. The final result is a 5-3 comparison win for Michigan, nabbing them the final #2 seed in the tournament.

Maine v. Massachusetts v. St. Lawrence

UMass wins their comparison against SLU, despite a lower RPI, due to their better record against TUCs and common opponents.

Against UMO, UMass has the edge in their record against common opponents. UMO, however, wins the RPI and TUC record battles. Where this comparison really turns in UMass’s favor, is UMass’s 4 game winning streak against Maine in the final weekend of the regular season and the conference quarterfinals, en route to a 4-1 record against Maine on the season. This gives the Minutemen the comparison 5-3, and results in UMass obtaining the overall #11 seed.

SLU wins their comparison against Maine 2-1, by having a better RPI and record against TUCs, while the Black Bears had a superior record against common opponents. This gives SLU the tournaments final #3 seed.

Air Force v. Alabama-Huntsville

Since both teams finished outside of the top-25 in RPI, niether is a part of the PWR comparisons. As a result, AFA grabs the #15 spot due to their higher RPI alone.

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Air Force
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester as the lone host to make the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - Michigan State
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - North Dakota
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This results in 2 intraconference matchups: Michigan-Michigan State and UNH-Maine. I prefer to keep the top half of the bracket intact, so the least disruptive ways to solve out problems is to swap MSU with North Dakota and Maine with Miami.

Our final brackets are therefore:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - North Dakota
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St. Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.

Hockey Bracketology: Conference Finals Edition

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended due to the results of last night’s semifinal action (and the WCHA’s play-in game). At last count, 25 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced by the bouncing of: Connecticut, Lake Superior State, Sacred Heart, and… well, I really don’t know who else to write off. Even though there’s only 8 games left to be played (5 title games and 3 consolation games), the results could result in wildly different fields. It looks like some idle teams on the bubble will be pretty safe (Maine, Miami of Ohio) and some are longshots (Denver, Michigan Tech). At least one team took a surprising dive after a loss last night, but could rebound and wind up with a nice seed anyways or could wind up unexpectedly out of the tournament (Massachusetts). Others have to play their consolation games like they’re in the national championship game, and hope several other results go their way (Dartmouth, Wisconsin).

Of course, most of this is speculation by a guy who only took the time to run a handful of scenarios, out of hundreds, on USCHO.com’s “Pairwise Predictor,” but you get the idea.

As for those still looking for autobids in the championship games tonight, here’s the top team left in each tournament (and our projected champion for this bracketology), with their opponent in parentheses:

AHA - Army (Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson (Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College)
WCHA - Minnesota (North Dakota)

In addition, the CCHA (Michigan State v. Lake Superior State), ECACHL (St. Lawrence v. Dartmouth), and WCHA (St. Cloud State v. Wisconsin), all play consolation games tonight.

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
3 - New Hampshire *
5 - Boston College
5 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
7 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - Massachusetts
12 - Miami of Ohio
12 - St. Lawrence
15 – Denver
16 – Michigan Tech
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *
NR – Army *

That’s right… 5 2-way ties and a 3-way tie. The 4 higher 2-way ties will be broken based on who wins the PWR comparison between the schools (which, interestingly enough, gives the higher seeding to the school with the lower RPI in the case of the ties at 3, 5, and 7). The 3-way tie will be broken by RPI, since amongst themselves, all 3 schools are 1-1 in PWR comparisons. The final tie, between non-TUC autobid winners UAH and Army will be determined by straight RPI.

So the seeding is:
1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Miami of Ohio
14 - Massachusetts
15 – Army
16 - Alabama-Huntsville
So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Army

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 – St. Cloud State
3 - Maine
4 - Massachusetts

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13

1 - New Hampshire
2 – Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

This results in no intraconference first round matchups and good attendance, except for Denver. Since there’s nothing obvious that would improve attendence there, we’re going to stick with what we have.

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.

Hockey Bracketology: Deep South Edition

The title is in honor of Alabama-Huntsville, who went from worst to first over the weekend, pulling off three straight come-from-behind victories over higher seeds in order to claim the CHA's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. 5 more automatic tickets will be punched this weekend, as the other conferences send their "Final 4" (or "Final 5" in the WCHA's case) to neutral sites in order to determine their champions.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended in conference tourney play over the weekend. At last count, 47 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced to 25 by the bouncing of: Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, American International, Bemidji State, Bentley, Colgate, Colorado College, Cornell, Harvard, Holy Cross, Mercyhurst, Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Niagara, Northeastern, Northern Michigan, Princeton, Providence, Robert Morris, Vermont, and Wayne State.

3 other teams saw their conference tournaments end early, and must now nervously await next weekend's results. All three are in danger, to varying degrees: Denver needs a miracle, Miami of Ohio needs to cheer for the favorites, and Maine just has to hope the higher seeds don't have total meltdowns in multiple tournaments.

As for the 22 that control their own destiny, here's the top remaining seeds (and thus the autobid winners for the purposes of this bracketology) as well as the remaining teams in their respective tournaments in parentheses, in order of seeding:

AHA - Sacred Heart (Army, Connecticut, Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan, Michigan State, Lake Superior State)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - St. Lawrence (Clarkson, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts)
WCHA - Minnesota (Saint Cloud State, North Dakota, Michigan Tech, Wisconsin)

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire *
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
8 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence *
14 - Miami of Ohio
23 - Sacred Heart *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *


So we have 2 ties to break:

Michigan vs. Michigan State vs. North Dakota

North Dakota wins comparisons with both Michigan and Michigan State largely on the strength of their vastly superior RPI. Against Michigan, NoDak has the better record against TUCs, but and inferior record against Common Opponents. Against Michigan State, the opposites are true. In both cases, the Sioux wins the comparison 2-1, and earns the overall #8 seed and final regional #2 seed.

In their comparison, Michigan beats Michigan State in RPI and record versus Common Opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Their head-to-head meetings ended in with a pair of wins by each, resulting in the Wolverines winning the comparison 4-3.

Maine vs. Saint Lawrence

SLU boasts a better record against TUCs, and UMO has a better record against Common Opponents, so this comparison goes to SLU by virtue of their slim three-thousandths of a point edge in RPI (.5396 to .5369).

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Sacred Heart
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This gives us 3 intraconference matchups to split up: BC-UMass in Denver, and both UNH-Maine and Clarkson-SLU in Manchester. I think the integrity of the top half of the bracket (the 1 and 2 seeds) is important to the committee and all swaps will occur in the bottom half of the seedings unless it becomes unwieldy. In this case, I'd advocate the swap of both the 3 and 4 seed in the Denver and Manchester brackets. This gives us a final bracket of:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 12
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 14 / 5 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and East-West.

Hockey Bracketology : Conference Quarterfinals Edition

Well, now the regular season is over no matter what league you play in, and every league has quarterfinal action to look forward to this weekend (or the "first round" in the WCHA with it's awkward "Final Five" format, which confers byes upon the top 3 teams that get through the first weekend, making this round more-or-less a quarterfinal affair). The CHA, which plays its entire playoff slate in Des Moines this weekend, has quarterfinal, semifinal, and championship action to look forward to.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, lets take a moment to wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons joined RIT's and Merrimack's on the scrapheap this past weekend: Bowling Green, Brown, Canisius, Ferris State, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ohio State, Rensselaer, Union, Western Michigan, and Yale. This leaves 47 schools vying to make the field of 16.

Anyways, the league regular season champions are:
Anyways, the current league leaders are:

AHA - Sacred Heart (in place of RIT)
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Niagara
ECACHL - St. Lawrence
HEA - New Hampshire
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - New Hampshire *
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - North Dakota
7 - Boston University
7 - Miami of Ohio
9 - Boston College
9 - Michigan
11 - Maine
12 - Denver
13 - Massachusetts
13 - Michigan State
13 - St. Lawrence *
NR - Niagara *
NR - Sacred Heart *

There are 2 easy ties to break in the middle of the pack. Miami gets the 7 spot over Boston University. Despite BU's better RPI, Miami has the better record against TUCs and a better record against common opponents (the latter mostly due to BU's late collapse against St. Lawrence over winter break, and Miami's win against the Saints over Thanksgiving). Boston College gets the nine spot due to beating Michigan in all 3 statistical comparisons.

The tough one is the 13 spot, with a 3 way tie between SLU, UMass, and Michigan State. With SLu guaranteed a bid as the ECACHL leader, either UMass or MSU is out. Based on the Pairwise matchups, SLU beats MSU, who beats UMass, who beats SLU. The 3 way tie should then be broken based on RPI, which puts SLU at 13, MSU at 14, and UMass home in Amherst.

Niagara gets the 15 seed over Sacred Heart due to holding a higher RPI, with both teams just missing becoming TUCs at 26th and 27th in the RPI.

So here's the field:


1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - New Hampshire
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - North Dakota
7 - Miami of Ohio
8 - Boston University
9 - Boston College
10 - Michigan
11 - Maine
12 - Denver
13 - St. Lawrence
14 - Michigan State
15 - Niagara
16 - Sacred Heart

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and DU to Denver. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - Boston University
3 - Boston College
4 - Sacred Heart

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Miami
3 - Michigan
4 - Niagara

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Maine
4 - Michigan State

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - St. Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Denver
4 - St. Lawrence

This gives us 2 intraconference matchups: BU-BC and Miami-Michigan. We'll settle them both by swapping 3 seeds BC and Michigan, which has the added bonus of sending Michigan to Grand Rapids without disrupting the integrity of the second round matchups.

The final bracket is:


MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10
1 - Minnesota
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan
4 - Sacred Heart

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Miami
3 - Boston College
4 - Niagara

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Maine
4 - Michigan State

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12
1 - St. Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Denver
4 - St. Lawrence

In St. Louis, Midwest v. West and East v. Northeast would play in the Frozen Four.

Hockey Bracketology: (Almost) Everything You Know Is Wrong Edition

Last night marked the end of regular season play for the ECACHL, CCHA, and Atlantic Hockey (as well as Minnesota State, Alaska-Anchorage, and Bemidji State). Every league leader not named Notre Dame decided to mark the occasion by coughing up points, with St. Lawrence, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the AHA's RIT/Sacred Heart combo all losing, and Niagara getting tied by BobbyMo at home. I'd like to gloat, but BU, as well as other perennial powers Michigan, Michigan State, Cornell, Wisconsin, Denver, and Colorado College decided to celebrate the occasion by losing as well. I guess the dregs of the NCAA hockey world decided to remind us all that, unless you're RIT or Merrimack, you're still alive for the national title.

That said, not everyone's chances are equal, so let's take a glance at how the tournament would look today if we skipped the whole "Conference Tournament" thing. Everything I said last week about the criteria and whathaveyou still applies, except I partially misstated how the TUCs are determined. Apparently, the "all teams with an RPI over .500, plus conference tournament champions" method was the old way, and the new way is simply "Top 25 RPIs." This change stemmed from Atlantic Hockey almost getting 2 teams in last year's tourney... had Bentley defeated Holy Cross in the title game, Bentley would have become a TUC, and Holy Cross's 4-1 mark against Bentley would have propelled them to an at-large bid and a #3 seed. Basically, the TUC changes whenever a mid-major threatens to or succeeds in obtaining an at-large bid (for reference, TUC criteria switched from Win% to RPI immediately after Niagara made the tourney as an at-large).

Anyways, the current league leaders are:

AHA - RIT won the regular season title, but Sacred Heart is the #1 seed in the tourney.
CCHA - Notre Dame won the regular season title.
CHA - Niagara clinched a share of the regular season title, and even if they lose both games this weekend at Alabama-Huntsville, they own the tiebreaker against the Beavers, so have the 1 seed locked up.
ECACHL - St. Lawrence won the regular season title.
HEA - New Hampshire clinched the regular season title last night, despite their 7-1 beating at the hands of Providence, because BU coughed up yet more points at home to UVM.
WCHA - Minnesota holds a 3 point lead over St. Cloud State with 2 games left apiece. By virtue of a sweep this weekend, the Huskies own the tiebreaker.


Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - New Hampshire *
3 - Notre Dame *
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston University
7 - Maine
8 - Denver
9 - North Dakota
10 - Michigan
11 - Boston College
11 - Miami of Ohio
13 - Colorado College
13 - Michigan Tech
13 - Vermont
16 - St. Lawrence *
21 - Niagara *
NR - Sacred Heart * (they were briefly in the top-25 earlier this weekend)

So we have 2 ties to break:

Miami RedHawks win their comparison with BC, and get the 11 seed.

Colorado College wins comparisons with both Michigan Tech and Vermont, and gets the 13 seed. Vermont would edge out Michigan Tech for the 14th spot, but with 3 autobids rated lower, both the Catamounts and the Huskies get squeezed out of the field.

The biggest change since my last bracketology column is that Miami of Ohio is now in at the expense of Michigan State, who has alot of work to do to fight their way back in the field. Both teams have next weekend off for earning byes in the CCHA tournament.

So here's the final field:

1 - Minnesota
2 - New Hampshire
3 - Notre Dame
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston University
7 - Maine
8 - Denver
9 - North Dakota
10 - Michigan
11 - Miami of Ohio
12 - Boston College
13 - Colorado College
14 - St. Lawrence
15 - Niagara
16 - Sacred Heart

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and DU to Denver. With the 8 seed in Denver, there's a desire to place overall #1 Minnesota in Denver to maintain bracket integrity. This should mean we have the same 4 #1 seeds in the same 4 cities as we did 2 weeks ago, even though their standing relative to each other has shifted a bit. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - Denver
3 - North Dakota
4 - Sacred Heart

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Maine
3 - Michigan
4 - Niagara

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Miami of Ohio
4 - Saint Lawrence

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Boston College
4 - Colorado College

This creates 2 all-WCHA first round matches, which can't happen. The first switch is easy, Denver U. can't be moved out of Denver, so NoDak has to be switched out, and a trade for Manchester-bound Michigan causes limited harm to the integrity of the bracket. Similar logic should move CC to Rochester to avoid a round 1 matchup with SCSU, but losing Saint Lawrence could be a real hit to Rochester's gate. BU travels well, but Notre Dame and Miami of Ohio are untested in that regard, and the folks at Blue Cross Arena might be left hoping for a big local turnout. As it stands now, I think sending CC to Manchester, the only other option, is too big of an unearned penalty for UNH for the committee to allow it to happen. So our final brackets would be:

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10
1 - Minnesota
2 - Denver
3 - Michigan
4 - Sacred Heart

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Maine
3 - North Dakota
4 - Niagara

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 11
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Miami of Ohio
4 - Colorado College

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 4 v. 14 / 5 v. 12
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Boston College
4 - Saint Lawrence

In St. Louis, West v. Midwest and Northeast v. East would play in the Frozen Four.

Hockey Bracketology: Pre-Beanpot Final Edition

Well, in an effort to resurrect this sorry blog, and to burn some time that should be spent on academic pursuits, I figure it's about time for some hockey bracketology. Now, as I've explained before, hockey bracketology is far more objective than the ever subjective committee system used by the hoops people.

The formula, known as Pairwise Rankings (PWR) compares all teams over .500 in the RPI (which is 25% win percentage, 50% opponents' win percentage, and 25% opponents'-opponents' win percentage, plus a mysterious bonus for wins on the road versus high RPI non-conference opponents) against all other such teams by 4 comparison criteria, with each team scoring one point based on having a higher RPI, Win % versus TUCs (teams with a RPI over .500), and Win % versus common opponents, plus one point for every Head-to-Head (H2H) win. The 6 conference champs and next 10 in PWR make the field.

So who's in right now? The six conference champs, if the season ended today, assuming current leaders win their conferences tournaments:

AHA: Sacred Heart (since current leader RIT isn't eligible for the NCAAs until next season)
CCHA: Notre Dame
CHA: Niagara (Bemidji State has 1 more point, but has played 2 more games, so I'm going with the higher Win %)
ECACHL: Saint Lawrence
HEA: New Hampshire
WCHA: Minnesota

Add in the next 10 in PWR - assuming that the mysterious RPI bonus is about .003 for non-conference, quality road wins, and the field looks like this (courtesy of www.uscho.com's PWR predictor):

1 - New Hampshire*
2 - Minnesota*
3 - Maine
3 - Notre Dame*
3 - Saint Cloud State
6 - Clarkson
6 - Denver
8 - North Dakota
9 - Boston University
10 - Colorado College
10 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
13 - Boston College
16 - Niagara*
16 - Saint Lawrence*
NR - Sacred Heart*

(14 & 15 - would be Vermont and Miami of Ohio, who get bumped by the automatic bids, as denoted by the asterisks*. Sorry guys.)

This is the messiest seeding I've ever seen with the PWR, requiring the breaking of 2 two-way, and 2 three-way ties. First, the easy stuff, the two-way ties.

Clarkson v. Denver

Clarkson has the better RPI (.560 to .552), better record versus TUCs (6-4-3 to 10-8-3), and better record versus common opponents (5-2-1 to 9-5-0). Clarkson wins the comparison 3-0.

Niagara v. Saint Lawrence

The battle of the autobids. This comparison is a 2-2 dead heat after SLU gets credited with the better RPI and record against TUCs (although both teams are under .500), while Niagara has the better record against common opponents and a H2H win. In the end, SLU gets the comparison by having a higher RPI, which is the default tiebreaker.

Now the more difficult question, settling three-way ties.

Maine v. Notre Dame v. Saint Cloud State

After running the comparisons, Maine beats SCSU, who beats Notre Dame, who beats Maine. Once again, the default tiebreaker is RPI, which ranks the teams SCSU, Notre Dame, UMO, in that order.

Colorado College v. Michigan v. Michigan State

Like above, Michigan beats CC, who beats State, who beats Michigan. After breaking the tie via RPI, then the order is MSU, UM, then CC.

So now our 16 teams rank as follows:

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Minnesota
3 - Saint Cloud State
4 - Notre Dame
5 - Maine
6 - Clarkson
7 - Denver
8 - North Dakota
9 - Boston University
10 - Michigan State
11 - Michigan
12 - Colorado College
13 - Boston College
14 - Saint Lawrence
15 - Niagara
16 - Sacred Heart

Now the questions are who goes where, and who plays who:

Regional hosts have to play at that regional. This means #1 New Hampshire has to play in the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and #7 Denver has to play in the West Regional in Denver (which makes a mess of things, as I'll explain). East host RIT and Midwest host Western Michigan make it easy on us by missing the field, the former because they can't as they're playing their second probationary year of D-I, and the latter because they're playing sub-.500 hockey this year.

Typically, the NCAA seeds the top 4 seeds based on proximity to the regional site, which would place Minnesota in Grand Rapids and SCSU in Denver. Because DU is guaranteed a slot in Denver, however, the question is whether to send Minnesota further than SCSU in order to maintain bracket integrity, or to keep Twin Cities fans happy by giving them to shorter trip to Michigan. The last few years, the NCAA seems to have shifted from monetary concerns to fairness in seeding, so I'm guessing Minnesota would head to Denver in this situation.

So my preliminatry brackets, with full bracket integrity are as follows:

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Boston University
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Minnesota
2 - Denver
3 - Michigan State
4 - Niagara

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Michigan
4 - Saint Lawrence

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Maine
3 - Colorado College
4 - Boston College

Miraculously, this completely avoids intraconference 1st Round matchups, and provides every regional with at least 1 local draw and multiple teams that draw well (which avoids past concerns about the NCAA shuffling things in order to maximize attendance).

With this bracket, we would have East v. Northeast and West v. Midwest regional champs meet in the Frozen Four in Saint Louis.

Bracketology: 2004-2005 NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Tournament

WARNING: This is the most complicated post I've ever written for this blog. Proceed at your own risk.

I figure I'll try my hand at being Joe Lunardi, and play Bracketology with the NCAA Men's Hockey field, which will be announced Sunday morning at 11AM on ESPN2.

The easy part:

6 Automatic Bids - The Conference Champions
Atlantic Hockey Association - Mercyhurst
Central Collegiate Hockey Association - Michigan
College Hockey America - Bemidji State
Eastern College Athletic Conference - Cornell
Hockey East Association - Boston College
Western Collegiate Hockey Association - Denver

The slightly tougher part is my 10 at-large bids to round out the NCAA field of 16 teams. These were determined using the Pairwise Rankings (PWR) found at www.uscho.com and I have predicted that the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) bonus for "good non-conference wins" will be .001 at home, .002 at neutral sites, and .003 on the road. Other people predict it will be .001, .003. and .005, and this is the part of the selection process on which we have the least to go by in making our predictions.

10 At-Large Bids
Colorado College
Minnesota
North Dakota
New Hampshire
Harvard
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Boston University
Maine
Colgate

The following are therefore the bubble teams who have had their bubbles (likely) burst over the last few days:

Better Luck Next Year
Dartmouth
Michigan State
Vermont
Massachusetts-Lowell

The next part is ranking the teams. Even though there are 4 regions ranked 1-4, it is easier to just rank them 1-16 through straight pairwise, at first, since the committee has put serpentine bracket integrity above attendance concerns in the last two years.

Preliminary Seeding
1) Boston College
2) Colorado College
3) Denver
4) Minnesota
5) Cornell
6) Michigan
7) North Dakota
7) New Hampshire
9) Harvard
10) Ohio State
11) Wisconsin
11) Boston University
11) Maine
14) Colgate
15) Bemidji State
16) Mercyhurst

There are two ties to break, and I'm not 100% sure how they should be broken, whether through a head to head pairwise comparison, or through highest RPI. In the case of UND and UNH, UND wins on pairwise and UNH on RPI. The difference might not matter too much if they base regional placement on attendance and travel rather than pure bracket integrity, since they will both be 2 seeds either way, but that seems unlikely to be the case. Just for the sake of making a decison, I'll base it on pairwise and make UND #7 and UNH #8. In the case of the three way tie, the method we choose makes less of a difference. Either way, Maine comes in at #13, which would make them a 4 seed and BU and Wisconsin 3 seeds, and since BU is already locked into the Northeast Regional as host it might not matter if BU and Wisconsin have their tie broken by RPI (putting BU at #11) or head to head pairwise (putting Wisconsin at #11). For the sake of consistency, we'll go with the latter.

Now, we're on to placing the teams in the appropriate regionals. The regionals take place in Worcester (Northeast), Amherst (East), Grand Rapids (Midwest) and Minneapolis (West) and are hosted by BU, Massachusetts, Western Michigan, and Minnesota, respectively. Hosts are required to attend that regional if they make the tournament, meaning the exclusion of UMass and WMU makes this process much easier.

First, the 1 seeds: BC, Colorado College, Denver, and Minnesota. As host, Minnesota will head to the West regional. After the hosts are placed, priority goes to giving the top seed left the least travel possible, which will place BC in the Northeast, Colorado College in the Midwest, and poor Denver in the East.

Now, the 2 seeds: To make a serpentine bracket, Cornell will head West to play Minnesota in a potential second round matchup (like a 4 v. 5 game). Michigan heads to the East (potentially a 3 v. 6). North Dakota joins CC in the Midwest (2 v. 7). Finally, New Hampshire joins conference-mate BC in the Northeast.

On to the 3s: First off, BU heads to the Northeast as host. This does two bad things, 1) It shreds bracket integrity by rewarding the lowest 2 seed (New Hampshire) with the lowest possible 3 seed, and 2) it creates an in conference first round matchup, which is a big "no-no" in this and most other NCAA tournaments. This means I will need to do a big overhaul after my initial placements. For now, following the rules I have laid out, Harvard goes to the Midwest, Ohio State to the East (creating another in conference matchup for the first round, versus Michigan), and Wisconsin heads to the West.

Finally, the 4s: Maine will head to the West, Colgate to the East, Bemidji State to the Midwest, and lastly, Mercyhurst to the Northeast.

What do we have so far (with seeding preceeding the school name, but my pairwise "rank" listed afterwards)?

NORTHEAST (Worcester)
1) Boston College (1)
2) New Hampshire (8)
3) Boston University (12)
4) Mercyhurst (16)

MIDWEST (Grand Rapids)
1) Colorado College (2)
2) North Dakota (7)
3) Harvard (9)
4) Bemidji State (15)

EAST (Amherst)
1) Denver (3)
2) Michigan (6)
3) Ohio State (10)
4) Colgate (14)

WEST (Minneapolis)
1) Minnesota (4)
2) Cornell (5)
3) Wisconsin (11)
4) Maine (13)

The trouble spots? We have to eliminate the UNH v. BU and Michigan v. Ohio State games in the first round, without moving BU out of Worcester. The easiest way to do this is to swap UNH and Michigan. This would hurt bracket integrity significantly, however, so UND will also be moved in a 3 way swap. This still hurts bracket integrity, as it seems to unfairly benefit Denver at the expense of Colorado College, but it is better than benefitting Denver at the expense of overall #1, BC. I also feels that this is most likely because underneath the "bracket integrity" aims, I still believe the committee will salivate at the opportunity to make some extra revenue by leaving Michigan in state and UNH in New England (let the conspiracy theorists begin to speculate).

FINAL BRACKET

NORTHEAST (Worcester)
1) Boston College (1)
2) North Dakota (7)
3) Boston University (12)
4) Mercyhurst (16)

MIDWEST (Grand Rapids)
1) Colorado College (2)
2) Michigan (6)
3) Harvard (9)
4) Bemidji State (15)

EAST (Amherst)
1) Denver (3)
2) New Hampshire (8)
3) Ohio State (10)
4) Colgate (14)

WEST (Minneapolis)
1) Minnesota (4)
2) Cornell (5)
3) Wisconsin (11)
4) Maine (13)

That's it, my sixteen team field. In order to place brackets 1-4 based on the highest seed, I would assume (if these brackets are correct) that the Northeast winner will play the West winner, and Midwest will play East at the Frozen Four in Columbus.