Hockey Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

“Can you hear the people cheering in Oxford, Ohio and Amherst, Massachusetts?!” – CSTV color commentator at the ECACHL Championship game, after Clarkson took a late lead against Quinnipiac.

Regular season? Over. Conference playoffs? Over. Tomorrow, at 2:30 on ESPN2, the 16 team field will become official, and the madness will really begin…

Of course, we already have a good idea how the show will play out…

Before we unveil this year’s final bracket projection, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended tonight, whether through their own failings on the ice in a game, or through other games played not falling their way. After the semifinals last night, 22 teams were in the running, although some teams were already resting their hopes on a series of miracles today. Hope finally died tonight for the last 6 teams: Army, Dartmouth, Denver, Michigan Tech, Quinnipiac, and Wisconsin.

The first step in making our final bracket, is congratulating the conference champions, who all receive autobids to the tournament:

AHA - Air Force
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson
HEA - Boston College
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league champions):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College *
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Maine
11 - Massachusetts
11 - St. Lawrence
14 - Miami of Ohio
NR - Air Force *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *

So we have 2 2-way ties and a 3-way tie:

Michigan v. Michigan State

Michigan boasts a better RPI and a better record against common opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Head-to-head, Michigan leads 3-2 after their CCHA seminfinal win last night. The final result is a 5-3 comparison win for Michigan, nabbing them the final #2 seed in the tournament.

Maine v. Massachusetts v. St. Lawrence

UMass wins their comparison against SLU, despite a lower RPI, due to their better record against TUCs and common opponents.

Against UMO, UMass has the edge in their record against common opponents. UMO, however, wins the RPI and TUC record battles. Where this comparison really turns in UMass’s favor, is UMass’s 4 game winning streak against Maine in the final weekend of the regular season and the conference quarterfinals, en route to a 4-1 record against Maine on the season. This gives the Minutemen the comparison 5-3, and results in UMass obtaining the overall #11 seed.

SLU wins their comparison against Maine 2-1, by having a better RPI and record against TUCs, while the Black Bears had a superior record against common opponents. This gives SLU the tournaments final #3 seed.

Air Force v. Alabama-Huntsville

Since both teams finished outside of the top-25 in RPI, niether is a part of the PWR comparisons. As a result, AFA grabs the #15 spot due to their higher RPI alone.

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Air Force
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester as the lone host to make the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - Michigan State
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - North Dakota
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This results in 2 intraconference matchups: Michigan-Michigan State and UNH-Maine. I prefer to keep the top half of the bracket intact, so the least disruptive ways to solve out problems is to swap MSU with North Dakota and Maine with Miami.

Our final brackets are therefore:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - North Dakota
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St. Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.

Hockey Bracketology: Conference Finals Edition

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended due to the results of last night’s semifinal action (and the WCHA’s play-in game). At last count, 25 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced by the bouncing of: Connecticut, Lake Superior State, Sacred Heart, and… well, I really don’t know who else to write off. Even though there’s only 8 games left to be played (5 title games and 3 consolation games), the results could result in wildly different fields. It looks like some idle teams on the bubble will be pretty safe (Maine, Miami of Ohio) and some are longshots (Denver, Michigan Tech). At least one team took a surprising dive after a loss last night, but could rebound and wind up with a nice seed anyways or could wind up unexpectedly out of the tournament (Massachusetts). Others have to play their consolation games like they’re in the national championship game, and hope several other results go their way (Dartmouth, Wisconsin).

Of course, most of this is speculation by a guy who only took the time to run a handful of scenarios, out of hundreds, on USCHO.com’s “Pairwise Predictor,” but you get the idea.

As for those still looking for autobids in the championship games tonight, here’s the top team left in each tournament (and our projected champion for this bracketology), with their opponent in parentheses:

AHA - Army (Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson (Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College)
WCHA - Minnesota (North Dakota)

In addition, the CCHA (Michigan State v. Lake Superior State), ECACHL (St. Lawrence v. Dartmouth), and WCHA (St. Cloud State v. Wisconsin), all play consolation games tonight.

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
3 - New Hampshire *
5 - Boston College
5 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
7 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - Massachusetts
12 - Miami of Ohio
12 - St. Lawrence
15 – Denver
16 – Michigan Tech
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *
NR – Army *

That’s right… 5 2-way ties and a 3-way tie. The 4 higher 2-way ties will be broken based on who wins the PWR comparison between the schools (which, interestingly enough, gives the higher seeding to the school with the lower RPI in the case of the ties at 3, 5, and 7). The 3-way tie will be broken by RPI, since amongst themselves, all 3 schools are 1-1 in PWR comparisons. The final tie, between non-TUC autobid winners UAH and Army will be determined by straight RPI.

So the seeding is:
1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Miami of Ohio
14 - Massachusetts
15 – Army
16 - Alabama-Huntsville
So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Army

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 – St. Cloud State
3 - Maine
4 - Massachusetts

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13

1 - New Hampshire
2 – Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

This results in no intraconference first round matchups and good attendance, except for Denver. Since there’s nothing obvious that would improve attendence there, we’re going to stick with what we have.

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.

Hockey Bracketology: Deep South Edition

The title is in honor of Alabama-Huntsville, who went from worst to first over the weekend, pulling off three straight come-from-behind victories over higher seeds in order to claim the CHA's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. 5 more automatic tickets will be punched this weekend, as the other conferences send their "Final 4" (or "Final 5" in the WCHA's case) to neutral sites in order to determine their champions.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended in conference tourney play over the weekend. At last count, 47 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced to 25 by the bouncing of: Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, American International, Bemidji State, Bentley, Colgate, Colorado College, Cornell, Harvard, Holy Cross, Mercyhurst, Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Niagara, Northeastern, Northern Michigan, Princeton, Providence, Robert Morris, Vermont, and Wayne State.

3 other teams saw their conference tournaments end early, and must now nervously await next weekend's results. All three are in danger, to varying degrees: Denver needs a miracle, Miami of Ohio needs to cheer for the favorites, and Maine just has to hope the higher seeds don't have total meltdowns in multiple tournaments.

As for the 22 that control their own destiny, here's the top remaining seeds (and thus the autobid winners for the purposes of this bracketology) as well as the remaining teams in their respective tournaments in parentheses, in order of seeding:

AHA - Sacred Heart (Army, Connecticut, Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan, Michigan State, Lake Superior State)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - St. Lawrence (Clarkson, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts)
WCHA - Minnesota (Saint Cloud State, North Dakota, Michigan Tech, Wisconsin)

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire *
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
8 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence *
14 - Miami of Ohio
23 - Sacred Heart *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *


So we have 2 ties to break:

Michigan vs. Michigan State vs. North Dakota

North Dakota wins comparisons with both Michigan and Michigan State largely on the strength of their vastly superior RPI. Against Michigan, NoDak has the better record against TUCs, but and inferior record against Common Opponents. Against Michigan State, the opposites are true. In both cases, the Sioux wins the comparison 2-1, and earns the overall #8 seed and final regional #2 seed.

In their comparison, Michigan beats Michigan State in RPI and record versus Common Opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Their head-to-head meetings ended in with a pair of wins by each, resulting in the Wolverines winning the comparison 4-3.

Maine vs. Saint Lawrence

SLU boasts a better record against TUCs, and UMO has a better record against Common Opponents, so this comparison goes to SLU by virtue of their slim three-thousandths of a point edge in RPI (.5396 to .5369).

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - St. Cloud State
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Clarkson
6 - Boston College
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Sacred Heart
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This gives us 3 intraconference matchups to split up: BC-UMass in Denver, and both UNH-Maine and Clarkson-SLU in Manchester. I think the integrity of the top half of the bracket (the 1 and 2 seeds) is important to the committee and all swaps will occur in the bottom half of the seedings unless it becomes unwieldy. In this case, I'd advocate the swap of both the 3 and 4 seed in the Denver and Manchester brackets. This gives us a final bracket of:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Sacred Heart

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 12
1 - Saint Cloud State
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 14 / 5 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - Clarkson
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and East-West.

Hockey Bracketology : Conference Quarterfinals Edition

Well, now the regular season is over no matter what league you play in, and every league has quarterfinal action to look forward to this weekend (or the "first round" in the WCHA with it's awkward "Final Five" format, which confers byes upon the top 3 teams that get through the first weekend, making this round more-or-less a quarterfinal affair). The CHA, which plays its entire playoff slate in Des Moines this weekend, has quarterfinal, semifinal, and championship action to look forward to.

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, lets take a moment to wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons joined RIT's and Merrimack's on the scrapheap this past weekend: Bowling Green, Brown, Canisius, Ferris State, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ohio State, Rensselaer, Union, Western Michigan, and Yale. This leaves 47 schools vying to make the field of 16.

Anyways, the league regular season champions are:
Anyways, the current league leaders are:

AHA - Sacred Heart (in place of RIT)
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Niagara
ECACHL - St. Lawrence
HEA - New Hampshire
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 - New Hampshire *
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - North Dakota
7 - Boston University
7 - Miami of Ohio
9 - Boston College
9 - Michigan
11 - Maine
12 - Denver
13 - Massachusetts
13 - Michigan State
13 - St. Lawrence *
NR - Niagara *
NR - Sacred Heart *

There are 2 easy ties to break in the middle of the pack. Miami gets the 7 spot over Boston University. Despite BU's better RPI, Miami has the better record against TUCs and a better record against common opponents (the latter mostly due to BU's late collapse against St. Lawrence over winter break, and Miami's win against the Saints over Thanksgiving). Boston College gets the nine spot due to beating Michigan in all 3 statistical comparisons.

The tough one is the 13 spot, with a 3 way tie between SLU, UMass, and Michigan State. With SLu guaranteed a bid as the ECACHL leader, either UMass or MSU is out. Based on the Pairwise matchups, SLU beats MSU, who beats UMass, who beats SLU. The 3 way tie should then be broken based on RPI, which puts SLU at 13, MSU at 14, and UMass home in Amherst.

Niagara gets the 15 seed over Sacred Heart due to holding a higher RPI, with both teams just missing becoming TUCs at 26th and 27th in the RPI.

So here's the field:


1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 - New Hampshire
4 - St. Cloud State
5 - Clarkson
6 - North Dakota
7 - Miami of Ohio
8 - Boston University
9 - Boston College
10 - Michigan
11 - Maine
12 - Denver
13 - St. Lawrence
14 - Michigan State
15 - Niagara
16 - Sacred Heart

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and DU to Denver. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9
1 - Minnesota
2 - Boston University
3 - Boston College
4 - Sacred Heart

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Miami
3 - Michigan
4 - Niagara

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Maine
4 - Michigan State

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13
1 - St. Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Denver
4 - St. Lawrence

This gives us 2 intraconference matchups: BU-BC and Miami-Michigan. We'll settle them both by swapping 3 seeds BC and Michigan, which has the added bonus of sending Michigan to Grand Rapids without disrupting the integrity of the second round matchups.

The final bracket is:


MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10
1 - Minnesota
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan
4 - Sacred Heart

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Miami
3 - Boston College
4 - Niagara

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11
1 - New Hampshire
2 - North Dakota
3 - Maine
4 - Michigan State

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12
1 - St. Cloud State
2 - Clarkson
3 - Denver
4 - St. Lawrence

In St. Louis, Midwest v. West and East v. Northeast would play in the Frozen Four.

Looking for Suggestions

In an effort to drum up traffic at New England Sports Exile, the blog is looking to sponsor a page or two at Baseball Reference. If anyone has any suggestions for what pages deserve to proudly bear a banner announcing that "New England Sports Exile sponsors this page," please, leave a suggestion in the Comments section below. Anything related to the Red Sox, New England, or that would just be funny to sponsor is in play. Suggestions of pages in the $2-$5 range are particularly appreciated.

The page I really would have broken the bank for is Trot Nixon's page. His situation fits with the theme of the blog perfectly... that guy would have been buried in a Red Sox jersey if the team had kept him. Heck, he still might. Unfortunately, he's already sponsored through September. Ah well, I still have my new Nixon Sox t-shirt to wear to Jacobs Field this season.

Backpedalling to the Playoffs

With an ugly looking 4-2 ENG loss to Northeastern, the Boston University Terriers Men's Ice Hockey team heads into the Hockey East Playoffs on a 2 loss skid, and really hasn't looked good since they took 3 points in 2 games from UNH a few weeks back. Tonight's loss probably also did damage to BU's burgeoning "John Curry for Hobey Baker Award" campaign, as the goaltender let in a couple really soft goals in the first period, and the guys in front of him really couldn't do anything to reverse the momentum. A bright moment of hope came in the third when Boomer Ewing put a one-timer past NU's Thiessen to cut the lead to 3-2, and BU sustained momentum for several minutes before imploding due to a slew of needless penalties, particularly the minors by Morrow and Straight down the stretch.

Now, BU is only one point up on Boston College for the 2 seed in the Hockey East playoffs, and BC still has a home-and-home series with the New Hampshire Wildcats. BC only needs a single point to take the 2 seed, by virtue of winning the regular season series with the Terriers. This probably means a quarterfinal series date with either Maine or Vermont at BU, a prospect no Terrier fan is relishing.

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In other news, congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, on kicking off the Grapefruit League campaign with a stunning... 4-4 10 inning tie with the Minnesota Twins. Ah, spring training baseball, "I live for this!"