Hockey Bracketology: Conference Finals Edition

Before we break down the brackets as they stand today, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended due to the results of last night’s semifinal action (and the WCHA’s play-in game). At last count, 25 teams were in the running, but that number has been reduced by the bouncing of: Connecticut, Lake Superior State, Sacred Heart, and… well, I really don’t know who else to write off. Even though there’s only 8 games left to be played (5 title games and 3 consolation games), the results could result in wildly different fields. It looks like some idle teams on the bubble will be pretty safe (Maine, Miami of Ohio) and some are longshots (Denver, Michigan Tech). At least one team took a surprising dive after a loss last night, but could rebound and wind up with a nice seed anyways or could wind up unexpectedly out of the tournament (Massachusetts). Others have to play their consolation games like they’re in the national championship game, and hope several other results go their way (Dartmouth, Wisconsin).

Of course, most of this is speculation by a guy who only took the time to run a handful of scenarios, out of hundreds, on USCHO.com’s “Pairwise Predictor,” but you get the idea.

As for those still looking for autobids in the championship games tonight, here’s the top team left in each tournament (and our projected champion for this bracketology), with their opponent in parentheses:

AHA - Army (Air Force)
CCHA - Notre Dame (Michigan)
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson (Quinnipiac)
HEA - New Hampshire (Boston College)
WCHA - Minnesota (North Dakota)

In addition, the CCHA (Michigan State v. Lake Superior State), ECACHL (St. Lawrence v. Dartmouth), and WCHA (St. Cloud State v. Wisconsin), all play consolation games tonight.

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league leaders):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
3 - New Hampshire *
5 - Boston College
5 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
7 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - Massachusetts
12 - Miami of Ohio
12 - St. Lawrence
15 – Denver
16 – Michigan Tech
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *
NR – Army *

That’s right… 5 2-way ties and a 3-way tie. The 4 higher 2-way ties will be broken based on who wins the PWR comparison between the schools (which, interestingly enough, gives the higher seeding to the school with the lower RPI in the case of the ties at 3, 5, and 7). The 3-way tie will be broken by RPI, since amongst themselves, all 3 schools are 1-1 in PWR comparisons. The final tie, between non-TUC autobid winners UAH and Army will be determined by straight RPI.

So the seeding is:
1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - North Dakota
9 - Michigan
10 - Michigan State
11 - Maine
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Miami of Ohio
14 - Massachusetts
15 – Army
16 - Alabama-Huntsville
So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester, and well... that's it, unless Denver gets some help and winds up back in the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - North Dakota
3 - Michigan
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10
1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Army

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 – St. Cloud State
3 - Maine
4 - Massachusetts

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 12 / 5 v. 13

1 - New Hampshire
2 – Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

This results in no intraconference first round matchups and good attendance, except for Denver. Since there’s nothing obvious that would improve attendence there, we’re going to stick with what we have.

The matchups in St.Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.