Hockey Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

“Can you hear the people cheering in Oxford, Ohio and Amherst, Massachusetts?!” – CSTV color commentator at the ECACHL Championship game, after Clarkson took a late lead against Quinnipiac.

Regular season? Over. Conference playoffs? Over. Tomorrow, at 2:30 on ESPN2, the 16 team field will become official, and the madness will really begin…

Of course, we already have a good idea how the show will play out…

Before we unveil this year’s final bracket projection, let's take a moment to once again wish a hearty "better luck next year" to the teams whose seasons ended tonight, whether through their own failings on the ice in a game, or through other games played not falling their way. After the semifinals last night, 22 teams were in the running, although some teams were already resting their hopes on a series of miracles today. Hope finally died tonight for the last 6 teams: Army, Dartmouth, Denver, Michigan Tech, Quinnipiac, and Wisconsin.

The first step in making our final bracket, is congratulating the conference champions, who all receive autobids to the tournament:

AHA - Air Force
CCHA - Notre Dame
CHA - Alabama-Huntsville
ECACHL - Clarkson
HEA - Boston College
WCHA - Minnesota

Thanks to the folks at USCHO.com, the top of the PWR charts, with a .003 bonus for non-conference road wins against TUCs, currently looks like this (* denotes league champions):

1 - Minnesota *
2 - Notre Dame *
3 – Clarkson *
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College *
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
8 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Maine
11 - Massachusetts
11 - St. Lawrence
14 - Miami of Ohio
NR - Air Force *
NR - Alabama-Huntsville *

So we have 2 2-way ties and a 3-way tie:

Michigan v. Michigan State

Michigan boasts a better RPI and a better record against common opponents, while MSU has a better record against TUCs. Head-to-head, Michigan leads 3-2 after their CCHA seminfinal win last night. The final result is a 5-3 comparison win for Michigan, nabbing them the final #2 seed in the tournament.

Maine v. Massachusetts v. St. Lawrence

UMass wins their comparison against SLU, despite a lower RPI, due to their better record against TUCs and common opponents.

Against UMO, UMass has the edge in their record against common opponents. UMO, however, wins the RPI and TUC record battles. Where this comparison really turns in UMass’s favor, is UMass’s 4 game winning streak against Maine in the final weekend of the regular season and the conference quarterfinals, en route to a 4-1 record against Maine on the season. This gives the Minutemen the comparison 5-3, and results in UMass obtaining the overall #11 seed.

SLU wins their comparison against Maine 2-1, by having a better RPI and record against TUCs, while the Black Bears had a superior record against common opponents. This gives SLU the tournaments final #3 seed.

Air Force v. Alabama-Huntsville

Since both teams finished outside of the top-25 in RPI, niether is a part of the PWR comparisons. As a result, AFA grabs the #15 spot due to their higher RPI alone.

So the seeding is:

1 - Minnesota
2 - Notre Dame
3 – Clarkson
4 - New Hampshire
5 - Boston College
6 - St. Cloud State
7 - Boston University
8 - Michigan
9 - Michigan State
10 - North Dakota
11 - Massachusetts
12 - St. Lawrence
13 - Maine
14 - Miami of Ohio
15 - Air Force
16 - Alabama-Huntsville

So who plays where? First, the hosts play at home, which sends UNH to Manchester as the lone host to make the field. Then, the top seeds are supposed to play as close to home as possible. Here's how the bracket looks without any reshifting due to conference affiliations:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 9

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - Michigan State
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 10

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - North Dakota
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 14 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Miami of Ohio

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 - Maine

This results in 2 intraconference matchups: Michigan-Michigan State and UNH-Maine. I prefer to keep the top half of the bracket intact, so the least disruptive ways to solve out problems is to swap MSU with North Dakota and Maine with Miami.

Our final brackets are therefore:

MIDWEST REGIONAL (GRAND RAPIDS): 1 v. 16 / 8 v. 10

1 - Minnesota
2 - Michigan
3 - North Dakota
4 - Alabama-Huntsville

WEST REGIONAL (DENVER): 2 v. 15 / 7 v. 9

1 - Notre Dame
2 - Boston University
3 - Michigan State
4 - Air Force

EAST REGIONAL (ROCHESTER): 3 v. 13 / 6 v. 11

1 - Clarkson
2 - St. Cloud State
3 - Massachusetts
4 - Maine

NORTHEAST REGIONAL (MANCHESTER): 4 v. 13 / 5 v. 12

1 - New Hampshire
2 - Boston College
3 - Saint Lawrence
4 – Miami of Ohio

The matchups in St. Louis would be Midwest-Northeast and West-East.